NOVPUBThe Near Eastern War erupted once more, and countries that were reluctant to see Austria continue to expand were also taking action. Indeed, pulling someone’s leg effectively and with meaning is an art form.
London
Inside the Downing Street Prime Minister’s Office, the British Cabinet was assembled. Prime Minister Gelson took out a stack of highly confidential documents and distributed them to everyone.
"This is the Austrian operation plan. Our intelligence department paid a heavy price to get it; I hope it will be of help to our next moves."
The price paid was truly heavy. This semi-public operational plan was almost published in the newspapers of Vienna.
British intelligence personnel spent a full fifty thousand pounds to obtain the preliminary plan. Don’t ask where the money went; intelligence is priceless.
No one spoke, and they began to read carefully. There was not much content on the document, only a rough plan that did not involve the specific operational part.
Minister of the Navy Robert furrowed his brows tightly, and his mutton chops were particularly eye-catching: "According to this operational plan, the Austrians won’t have to pay much cost to win this war.
With the Ottoman Empire’s few decrepit ships facing Austria, they don’t even have the capacity to fight back. Losing sea power, the Allied Forces can land anywhere, at any time.
According to naval intelligence, the Ottoman Empire has at least thirty ports suitable for large armies to land; the actual number may be even higher.
To defend all these places, at least a million troops would be necessary. With the national power of the Ottoman Empire, this is not achievable.
Once the coastal areas rot away and a large number of war refugees arise, the Ottoman Empire will soon be dragged down. This scorched earth plan is too cruel."
The words of Robert were clear to everyone. They understood that criticizing the ruthlessness of the Austrian battle plan was one thing, but the main purpose was to emphasize the importance of "maritime power."
No one disagreed; maritime power was indeed very important to the Great Britain Empire. The situation of the Ottoman Empire was just another proof of this point.
Prime Minister Gelson nodded, "Exactly, the plan of the Austrians is indeed very vicious. If we don’t find a way to interfere, it won’t be long before the Ottoman Empire collapses,
and it will be a complete collapse, one that doesn’t even exhaust Austrian strength. Without this thorn in our side, it will be even harder for us to contain Austria."
He picked up a pointer and pointed to a world map on the wall that had been marked: "You can see this world map, marked accordingly.
The blue areas are either Austrian colonial territories or within their sphere of influence. It’s only been twenty years, and Austria has already become the second-largest colonial power after us.
The issue of overseas colony expansion is not urgent; the world has been almost divided up, what remains are hard nuts to crack, or regions of relatively low value.
Let’s turn our attention back to the European Continent, this is the European situation after the Prusso-Russian War. The Russian Empire was suppressed and its influence contained within Eastern Europe.
The Kingdom of Prussia has risen, and France has been revitalized; at present, the European countries are restraining each other, and with our mediation, overall balance can still be maintained.
However, we still cannot let our guard down. From the end of the anti-French wars to now, the Austrians have been in a leading position on the European Continent through diplomatic means.
If this were Austria twenty years ago, it would be a good thing, as they helped us achieve a balance in Europe.
But over the past decade, the situation has changed; the foreign policy of the Vienna Government has become incomprehensible, and their strategic goals have grown vague.
The only thing we can be sure of is that the policy of European Continent balance is no longer at the core of Vienna Government’s strategy, otherwise the French couldn’t have annexed Italy."
Gelson stepped back, his expression becoming grave: "In today’s world, there are only two countries strong enough to threaten Britannia’s hegemony." He pointed on the map twice, and it was none other than France and Austria.
"According to intelligence from Paris, Napoleon III is bedridden, and the young Crown Prince is unable to contain the many forces within the country. Once Napoleon III passes away, this power struggle is inevitable, and the French will not be a threat in the short term.
Austria is different. The domestic political situation is stable, Franz is in his prime, and now he has ambitiously launched the Near Eastern War.
Once the Ottoman Empire collapses, Vienna Government’s next target will certainly be the annexation of the German Federation.
They’ve chosen a good time. Prussia and Russia are holding each other back and unlikely to join forces to intervene; France, during the transition of power, is likely to avoid military intervention to remain stable.
The rest of the European countries are all like weather vanes, good at shouting slogans, but it’s too far-fetched for them to contain Austria. Alone, even if we wanted to intervene, we would be unable to do so."
This was the most concerning issue for the British. If Austria united the Germany Region, they would dominate the European Continent alone; it would be difficult to know where to start to contain them.
This wasn’t the original timeline, where Franco-German enmity could be exploited. The European countries weren’t foolish; without sufficient interest, why would they rush to fight Austria blindly?
Moreover, the Vienna Government was adept at diplomacy. For the many years Franz had been in power, Austria was never isolated.
The Vienna System had been established twice and could be established a third time. Against the backdrop of the Prusso-Russian opposition, the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, and the internal strife of France, the success of establishing Austria’s European hegemony was very high.
Foreign Minister McLean: "From the standpoint of the Empire, we must not let the Ottoman Empire collapse at any cost. It’s not enough to just support the Ottoman Empire; the power disparity is too great, the Sultan Government won’t last long.
It’s too difficult to start directly with Austria, so we can only look for ways with France, Prussia, and Russia. The Foreign Office is persuading the Berlin Government to create conflicts at the Prusso-Russian Border. The Central Asian Countries can also be stirred up, finding a way to get the Russians to drop out of the war.
Once Russia withdraws, we join forces with the French in the Mediterranean for military exercises to pretend to intervene, to deter the Vienna Government.
Franz dislikes risk; he always plans before acting. This is both a strength and a flaw. If the presence we create is big enough, and we bring the European countries together for mediation, Austria is very likely to back down.
If the plan fails, we create distractions overseas, diverting the focus of the Vienna Government."
Austria’s colonial system is not impregnable either, we can’t touch Austro-Africa, and it’s not easy to intervene in the Central American region, but other areas are a different story."
Finance Minister Laruoke Lloyd inquired, "This plan sounds quite good, but where do we benefit from it? We surely can’t incur such a huge cost without any return, can we?"
The biggest characteristic of British diplomacy is its pragmatism. Suppressing Austria isn’t an issue, but it also must not harm Britannia’s own interests.
Winning over other countries in Europe isn’t a trivial matter; it comes with a cost. Even if smaller nations help wave the flag and cheer, it requires an appearance fee, and all of this has a cost.
Especially the last method, which involves targeting Austrian colonies directly, requires an even greater investment.
Not to mention the benefits, Austria’s most fertile colonies can’t be touched, leaving only the leftovers, where no return can be seen.
Alaska is nothing but ice, at best there’s some fur, or some fish to catch. If Britannia were interested, it would have taken it back in the last century, there was no need to wait until now.
Patagonia isn’t much better, a colonial outpost abandoned by the Spaniards, obviously another losing proposition.
Argentina and Chile are somewhat interested in this land, but they lack the courage to snatch it from Austria, or perhaps the allure isn’t enough.
The Austrian Nanyang is comparatively more fertile, but the cost of capturing it is too high. There are no henchmen to be found in the vicinity, unless the British themselves take action.
However, considering the cost, even if the plan were successful, Britannia would still be at a loss. Not just financially, but also gaining an enemy.
Suppressing Austria would make all these investments worthwhile. The real trouble would be if Austria isn’t subjugated; if that drives France and Austria closer together, the loss would be substantial.
McLean stood up, walked over to the hanging map, and drew a circle with his hand.
"This is the current map of Austria, which has doubled in size compared to the First Near East War."
Then he pointed to the map: "This here is the Suez Canal; once the Ottoman Empire collapses, Austrian influence would stretch in an unbroken chain, extending its influence to the Indian Ocean.
On one side of the Suez is Austria’s Sinai Peninsula, on the other is France’s Egypt. The second outlet to the Mediterranean has nothing to do with us, but I suppose everyone has their ideas about it!
This action might not hurt the vitality of Austria, but at the least, it allows us to stretch our hands into the Suez Canal, turning the joint governance by France and Austria into a trilateral governance with England, France, and Austria, how about that?"
The Suez Canal is closely guarded by both France and Austria, offering no opportunity for the British to intervene. To wedge ourselves in, we must first create a rift in the Franco-Austrian relationship.
The London Government has always been striving in this regard, but to little avail. Although there are many Pro-British factions within the Paris Government, being Pro-British doesn’t mean they are willing to betray their own country.
Napoleon III isn’t someone easy to deal with either. When it comes to the Suez Canal issue, he doesn’t talk with Britain at all. There is no room for discussion, let alone meddling?
Austria is even less likely to speak of, Franz considers the Suez Canal as a lifeline. The Vienna Government’s aim is to monopolize the Suez Canal; how could they possibly allow the British to intervene?
...
In Paris, Napoleon III, who is confined to his bed, can no longer concern himself with the Near East War. He has reached the final stage of his life, and his ministers dare not trouble him with these matters.
If the Emperor were to be distressed by such a report and suffer the consequences, they would become sinners. The current Napoleon III is not the same unlucky fellow who was deposed from the throne in the original timeline; the French public still supports the Emperor.
Even if the young Emperor were magnanimous and forgiving, the spit from the public alone could kill. In any case, the Emperor’s recovery is far more important than the Near East War.
Crown Prince Eugénie, who presides over state affairs under the influence of Napoleon III, chooses to be "steady" in uncertainties, responding to all changes with constancy.
Making declarations is feasible; the Paris Government has always been calling for restraint on both sides, but let’s forget any real action. It seems to be following London’s lead, waiting for the British to make a move so they can cheer on the sidelines.
This immovable stance of the French has proven highly troublesome for the British, who are truly unaccustomed to acting without this ally charging ahead!
...
In the Vienna Palace, Franz put down the newspaper he was holding: "Have the Prussians not made a move yet?"
The reactions of England and France were within Franz’s expectations, but he found the actions of the Berlin Government puzzling.
If you said the Prussians had no ambitions for Poland, Franz would not believe a word of it. However, with ambitions, they should act. A golden opportunity had presented itself, yet there was no sign of movement from the Berlin Government—what’s going on?
Could it be that Wilhelm I had seen through his plans? That didn’t seem right either; even if the Prussians had seen through the plans, they wouldn’t turn down the chance to annex Poland.
Even if they feared that Polish nationalism was too strong, it wouldn’t affect a joint sovereignty. At worst, they could operate two sets of government institutions; each side would mind its own business.
There are plenty of examples of this, the Austro-Hungarian Empire in the original timeline is the advanced version of a personal union and a devolved version of a unified empire.
Intelligence Chief Tyren: "Nothing yet. We’ve been keeping an eye on the Berlin Government, and up to this point, they haven’t taken any action.
By the way, there have been quite a few meetings in the Berlin Palace recently, sometimes even going into the night. The Prussians have strictly blockaded the news; no one knows the precise content of these meetings.
According to observations by intelligence personnel, the attendees seem very serious when they come out, and some wear gloomy expressions. Our initial assessment is that there have been disputes."
It’s good that there are unusual moves; what we fear most is no action at all. For a great nation, as long as it does not make major mistakes itself, it is very difficult for external factors to bring it down.
