NOVPUBTime flies, and before we know it, winter has come again.
Based on Franz’s many years of experience, he could judge that this was a warm winter. Usually, by this time of year, Glockna Mountain would already be covered in snow, but this year, there was not only an absence of snow but also very little rain.
A warm winter combined with drought almost certainly announced a decrease in agricultural output for the coming year. Austria, being a major industrial nation, was also an agricultural powerhouse, with agriculture occupying an important position in the national economy.
The Vienna Government had always placed great importance on agricultural production. After years of effort, the country’s agricultural infrastructure had improved, leading to a well-developed disaster response system.
It was unusual for Franz to intervene unless there was a large-scale disaster affecting the whole country. The situation now caught his attention primarily because it occurred in Vienna.
Minister of Agriculture Hols: "Your Majesty, the current situation is not too bad. According to data monitored from various places, the scope of the disaster is not very extensive.
It is mainly concentrated in the areas surrounding Vienna and the Bohemian region. These areas have relatively developed industrial and commercial sectors, and the inhabitants possess stronger risk resistance capabilities. A reduction in the winter wheat yield will not have too much of an impact."
This was one of the benefits brought about by the industrial age. In economically developed areas, it has become a common social phenomenon for farmers to work in the cities during the agricultural off-season.
With an increase in sources of income, there was naturally an increase in risk resistance capabilities. If society were still primarily agricultural, the government would need to be on high alert.
Franz casually inquired about the issue; a reduction of grain production within a certain range was within Austria’s capacity to endure, and there was no need for "disaster relief."
A reduction in production wasn’t equivalent to a total loss. Yielding a hundred or so pounds less per acre wasn’t enough to bankrupt the farmers. Only continuous disasters would necessitate government relief; otherwise, the people could weather the situation on their own.
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Foreign Minister Weisenberg: "Your Majesty, we’ve just received news from Paris. The French are preparing to send troops to escort the son of Isabella II back to his country. The struggle for the Spanish throne is coming to an end.
Based on the information we’ve gathered, Britain and France must have reached an agreement. The Foreign Ministry believes this may be related to the Near Eastern War. The London Government conceded on the issue of the Spanish throne in exchange for French support on Near Eastern issues."
This did not surprise Franz in the least. The British, wishing to preserve the Ottoman Empire, needed to bring the French on board.
Despite the continuous internal conflicts in the Paris Government, they similarly did not wish to see Austria pull out the thorn in their back. It was not strange for the British to give way on the Spanish throne question and for the French to choose to support them.
Just as Austria wanted a stable rear, so did the French. Spain, unlike the Ottoman Empire, represented a thorn that the French could not just pluck out even if they wanted to.
It wasn’t about whether they could win a war, but that there was no way to use force. The European nations might accept the fall of the Ottoman Empire, but they would definitely not allow Spain to be swallowed up.
If they can’t beat them, it’s better to align with them. Present-day Spain is in shambles internally with numerous issues. Supporting a pro-French and weak government is completely in line with France’s interests.
The reputation of Queen Isabella II of Spain was already tarnished, affecting her son Alfonso XII’s reputation as well. To secure his throne, he could not do without French support.
A weak, pro-French government means that for a considerable time to come, the French need not worry about a threat from Spain.
Franz: "If that is the case, then we should prepare for the finale. Send a telegram to Hummel, once Britain and France intervene fully, negotiate with the Ottoman Empire. Our bottom line is to secure our current control zone, plus Jerusalem.
As for the Russians, the Foreign Ministry should also appease them. How much they gain will depend on the Tsarist Government’s own diplomatic skills."
Franz was well aware that this might be the last joint military operation of the Russian-Austrian Alliance. Given the current international situation, an alliance with Russia was more disadvantageous than beneficial for Austria.
Alexander II was indeed talented and had a grand vision; he had subdued domestic forces and achieved preliminary social reform, but his foreign policy performance was far from commendable.
On one hand, the Russian Empire’s historical burden was heavy, continuing to act the part of the hegemon of Europe without timely adjusting its attitude; on the other hand, it valued territory too much, maintaining poor relations with all neighbors.
It’s not incorrect to value territory, but much of the Russian Empire’s territory was acquired through conquest, much like colonies.
When strong, valuing territory could be justified. But in times of decline, it was vital to consider the approach and make necessary concessions where due.
Regrettably, the Tsarist Government did not act accordingly. Russia’s defeat in the previous Prusso-Russian war was, in reality, a diplomatic failure.
If the Tsarist Government had reined in its ambitions, at the very least Central Asia and the Far East would not have posed problems. If the Tsarist Government hadn’t irritated its adversaries with pre-war expansion, Prussia wouldn’t have been able to rally allies.
Logically, after a social setback, the Tsarist Government should have come to its senses and mended relations with neighboring countries. Any issues could be dealt with slowly after crushing Prussia.
Unfortunately, the Tsarist Government did not change its approach and took the neighbors reclaiming their territory as an invasion, seeing themselves as the victims.
No doubt about it, playing this way guaranteed no friends. Franz highly doubted that in the next Prusso-Russian war, the Russians would again be besieged.
Because of the Russian-Austrian Alliance, relations between Austria and these countries were also poor. Of course, Austria was powerful enough that, even though the relations were bad, it still received great power treatment and its trade with various countries was unaffected.
Prime Minister Felix suggested, "Your Majesty, perhaps we should first notify the Tsarist Government, giving them some buffer time."
The Russian-Austrian Alliance hadn’t ended yet, and it wasn’t time to be too obvious about betraying an ally. The current situation in the Near East War was mainly due to Austria providing strategic materials.
If Austria were to withdraw from the war, the Tsarist Government would not be able to afford the expense. The same strategic materials cost differently for different countries.
Relatively speaking, industrial powers with their own production capacities had a lower cost for strategic materials, while agricultural countries that needed to import these materials bore a much higher cost.
Take weapons and ammunition for example, the Russians would have to pay a third more than Austria during peacetime, and during a war, the cost could even be as much as fifty percent higher.
There were many factors involved, such as production costs, transportation costs, purchase costs, and the integrity of the bureaucratic system.
If the Vienna Government were to play a trick on the Russians now, the Ottoman Empire might not need to pay anything, and the Tsarist Government would only be able to retreat.
Prussia was Russia’s main enemy; the Tsarist Government could not afford to deploy its full strength in a continuing war with the Ottoman Empire.
The war had progressed to this point, and the Tsarist Government’s strategic goal of weakening the Ottoman Empire had been accomplished. Even if the Ottoman Empire were to be reborn from the ashes, it could not threaten the Russian Empire within the next twenty years.
Reminding the Russians without having to pay a price was naturally something Franz was willing to do.
"Inform the Russians through the Department of Foreign Affairs and convey the news that England and France are drawing closer, the Tsarist Government will surely understand," he said.
They would have to understand, as without Austria’s financial and material support, the Tsarist Government simply could not afford to continue the war.
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In the Prime Minister’s office on Downing Street, Prime Minister Gelson was in a very bad mood, saying coldly, "Raul, summon the Cabinet members for a meeting."
Franz believed that the British, in order to preserve the Ottoman Empire, had made concessions on the Spanish succession issue, but in reality, the London Government had not made such a quick decision.
Austria was a threat, and France was just as threatening; allowing either to grow would threaten Britain’s interests.
Unless there was no other choice, the London Government would not compromise with the French.
In the original timeline, the British sided with the Allied Powers only after the German Empire had expanded its navy and posed a threat to them; before that, they had always been indecisive.
Currently, Austria had not been expanding its navy excessively; their naval size was always below that of France, ranking third in total tonnage worldwide.
From the British perspective, both France and Austria were significant threats. Unfortunately, both threats shared a common weakness: they had to develop both land and naval powers at the same time, and on the European Continent they checked each other, which didn’t put much pressure on the London Government.
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Prime Minister Gelson questioned, "Your Grace, didn’t you tell me that the French were preoccupied with internal conflicts and uninterested in international affairs?
What is happening now? We restrained Austria for them, and the French have directly sent troops to intervene in the Spanish succession dispute.
I cannot imagine how much of a sensation it would cause if this news were to spread."
The Marquis of MacKinnon was almost crying without tears, he had not expected the French engaged in internal fights to suddenly pull this move.
It must be said that the French chose an excellent moment. With Britain and Austria entangled due to the Ottoman issue and restraining each other, they had no spare effort to interfere with the Spanish succession dispute.
"Prime Minister, we have misjudged and underestimated the ambition of the French. Now that it has come to this, we must think of a way to clean up the mess; otherwise, we will have created the biggest joke of the century.
Given the current situation, we can only choose one of two options. Either we join forces with the French to save the Ottoman Empire, or we collaborate with Austria to force the French to give up interfering in the Spanish succession.
I personally recommend that we first save the Ottoman Empire; the Spanish issue can be resolved later. In politics, there are no permanent allies; today’s Spanish Government might be pro-French, but tomorrow they could be pro-British.
If the Ottoman Empire were destroyed, reviving it would be difficult. Without the check of the Ottoman Empire, Austria then could fully expand into the Central European Region, and the balance in Europe could likely be broken."
There was another reason the Marquis of MacKinnon didn’t mention: intervention in the Near East War had already begun. If they stopped now, it would be akin to the failure of the intervention, a blunder that would be criticized by the Opposition Party.
