NOVPUBSt. Petersburg, ever since receiving news of England and France’s preparation to form an alliance, Alexander III became restless.
Originally, he had hoped to woo the French, to combine the power of the French-Russian-Austrian alliance to strike at the British. He had not expected the situation to reverse so quickly.
Filled with anticipation, Alexander III asked, "Is the news confirmed?"
Deep inside, he desperately hoped it was only a rumor.
Once England and France formed an alliance, the Austrian Navy would be powerless to contend against their united forces, and the Vienna Government would not be able to stand up to these two countries in naval matters.
The ongoing military competition among England, France, and Austria was about to end.
The Vienna Government’s previous promise to use the arms race to contain the British would naturally turn into nothing more than a pipe dream.
Though from the start, Austria had never intended to keep its promise and had prepared excuses, the Russians were unaware.
After all, the Vienna Government had a sufficiently good reputation; it had never broken a promise over the many years, and Alexander III had never harbored any doubts.
With the end of the arms race, the Russian Empire would have to face a Britannia of great financial and military power.
Because of the Anglo-French alliance, Austria would be tied down by France, leaving the Russian Empire to confront the British alone.
Foreign Minister Oscar Ximenes replied, "The news has been verified. British Foreign Minister George arrived in Paris over half a month ago; the two countries are currently negotiating the alliance.
The Foreign Office has already ordered the Paris Embassy to closely monitor the negotiation process and report back any news immediately."
To stop, interfere, sabotage?
Such options were non-existent; England and France were among the most powerful countries in the world and could not care less about the Russians’ stance.
Knowing it to be impossible, the Russians naturally would not humiliate themselves. Apart from paying close attention, there wasn’t much the Tsarist Government could do.
"Sigh!"
After sighing, Alexander III slowly asked, "We can no longer prevent the Anglo-French alliance, and we have lost the best opportunity for battle. Do you think we should still proceed with the Central Asia campaign?"
Essentially, starting the Central Asian war at this time, aside from rescuing the ally Afghanistan, was more about seizing an easy opportunity.
According to the plan, the Tsarist Government intended to reclaim the Central Asian region during the arms race of England, France, and Austria, pushing the border into Afghanistan.
There were no plans to advance south into India, not because the Tsarist Government lacked ambition towards India, but because the Russian Empire currently did not possess the strength to conquer India.
Army Minister Parladro Wald stated, "Of course we must continue! Even if England and France form an alliance, the French will not send troops to help the British in war.
As long as we are quick enough, if we conquer the Bulaha Khan State before the British destroy Afghanistan, we will have the initiative in the war.
If we miss this opportunity and allow the British to eliminate Afghanistan, the cost we would have to pay in the future to take Central Asia will be far greater.
Moreover, we must also consider the international impact. We just formed an alliance with Afghanistan, and to then betray them—what would our allies think?"
When it comes to confronting the British Army, the Russian military is still confident.
Times have changed. Although the Russian Empire suffered heavy losses in the two Prusso-Russian wars, the Russians have also forged an elite force.
What’s most critical is that the British Government would find it difficult to decide—whether to commit a million-strong main force to contest Central Asia with the Russian Empire.
Merely the Indian Colonial Army, that would be simply asking to be thrashed by the Russian Army. Such an unchallenging, favorable battle is something the Russian military has always favored.
Alexander III nodded; the international reputation of the Russian Empire was already poor, and he did not want to bear the ignominy of betraying an ally unless absolutely necessary.
Although in later years the Russians often betrayed their allies, at this time, the Tsarist Government really seldom betrayed them, at least not in the recent decades.
Of course, the main factor was that the gains from betraying an ally were too little, and the costs too high—it simply wasn’t worth it overall.
This time was no exception; betraying Afghanistan would be easy, but the thoughts of Austria could not be ignored.
Recall that in years past, Alexander II fought the Prussians for their Danish ally.
Despite the heavy losses, it earned the Tsarist Government a reputation and laid a solid foundation for the continuation of the Russian-Austrian Alliance—at least that’s how the Tsarist Government saw it.
After all, by the early 1890s, the Russian-Austrian Alliance could no longer bring Austria much benefit; instead, the Tsarist Government reaped significant advantages from it.
Seeing the Tsar inclined to action, Alisher Gurov, the anti-war Finance Minister hastily objected, "Marquis, you’re viewing the issue too narrowly. Explore stories on freewebnovel.com
The Central Asian region is vast, and the three Khanates all bear grudges against us; none are likely to surrender.
Even if our troops were making smooth progress on the battlefield, it would be impossible to pacify Central Asia in just a few months.
But the Country of Afghanistan is different. The British need only two battalions to make the Afghan Government capitulate.
Everyone knows the terrain of the Afghan Region. If the British gain control of Afghanistan before us, the subsequent war will become difficult to fight.
If we cannot end the war in a short time, it will eventually turn into a prolonged war of attrition. The British have India at their back, with plenty of manpower and financial resources to sustain the fight.
In recent years, the finances of the Empire have improved, but this is only temporary.
An agricultural crisis is approaching, and according to the data collected, the Ministry of Finance estimates that the income from grain exports will decrease by 11% this year, and even more so next year.
Without the burden of an arms race, the British, financially, are beyond the Empire’s competition. Insisting on going through with this endless war will only result in a mountain of debt.
In view of the current complex international situation, the Finance Ministry suggests resolving the conflicts in Central Asia through diplomatic means and striving to maintain the status quo."
There is no other way; the three Khanates of Central Asia were once dependent on the Tsarist Government. It’s just that the Russians’ appetite was too large, wanting to swallow them up. During the First Prusso-Russian War, they were swayed by the British.
Some things cannot be undone. Once they became traitors, they could only brace themselves for a fight to the death against the Russians.
This means that it is unlikely the Central Asian Region could be taken in one battle. With the British supporting them from behind, it is very likely that the war will continue.
By comparison, the Afghan Government is not favoured by many. What can a semi-slave, semi-feudal agricultural country do against the British?
Using John Bull’s usual tactics of combining diplomacy and military, the likelihood of forcing the Afghan Government to compromise is very high.
There have been too many similar successful cases.
In fact, the Afghan Government in the original timeline also chose to compromise, but the British were too greedy and aimed to swallow them in one gulp.
Unsurprisingly, the British Army easily defeated the Afghan Government. Then they unexpectedly discovered that Afghanistan without a government was even more frightening.
This was something that was personally verified by the U.S. and the Soviet in later eras. Defeating Afghanistan is simple; the trouble lies in ruling the Afghan Region.
This has not yet been verified, and all we can see now is the power of the Afghan Government. Two regular regiments of the British Army are already more than enough.
As for military issues, they are minor. As long as there is money, the Tsarist Government has nothing to fear.
If you flip through history books, you will find that finances are the biggest weakness of the Russian Empire. Except for one particular period, the Russian Government has never been without financial troubles.
Because agricultural tax could be paid in kind, grain exports became the Tsarist Government’s most important source of income, accounting for more than half of the total export trade.
This agricultural crisis is a clash between the top three economic powers, and Russia, as Europe’s largest primary grain exporter, is completely an innocent victim.
A reduction in income from grain exports does not mean a decrease in the total amount of grain exported, but rather a fall in international grain prices.
In any case, the British grain self-sufficiency plan and the French large farm plan have had some success.
Although the total amount of grain imported by both countries each year has only decreased by a negligible one or two percent, the impact on the international grain trade market is still substantial.
With the market being oversupplied, the price of grains naturally plummets. When grain prices fall, the Tsarist Government’s wallet also inevitably suffers.
Without money, you cannot wage war. In this context, the Finance Minister, in charge of the government’s purse strings, has reluctantly become the leader of the Russian Government’s anti-war faction.
Minister of Army Parladro Wald, unmoved, stated, "If the government finances deteriorate, it is all the more reason to pursue this war.
If our plans proceed smoothly, and we first seize Central Asia, then India in the future, all problems will be solved.
Embarking on this war, the temporary issue of insufficient government funds can be addressed by the Ministry of Finance.
If we don’t engage in this war, we will never escape the financial predicament."
He wasn’t wrong—the wealth plundered by the British from India every year exceeds the Tsarist Government’s fiscal revenue.
If India were truly taken, the financial difficulties faced by the Tsarist Government could indeed be resolved.
Perhaps after the setbacks encountered in the westward push, no one wanted to repeat the experience, so most of the Russian military supported the move southwards to India.
This perspective also had considerable support within the Tsarist Government.
After all, executing a strategy to move south and seize India meant facing only the British as the enemy; whereas, moving westward to Europe meant facing all European countries as opponents.
Even with a loss to the British, the consequences would be limited.
No matter how much the British excelled, they could not possibly march from Central Asia all the way to Siberia; they had plenty of chances for a comeback.
The scenario would be different with a westward move towards Europe; a miscalculation could lead to a beating from all European nations, which could be far more severe.
At best, it would result in a devastating loss and a debilitating setback; at worst, it could even lead to the outright fall of the nation.
In this respect, the Prusso-Russian War was meaningful for the European world. It woke up the greedy polar bear and made an outstanding contribution to the peace and stability of the European world.
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