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On September 21, 1889, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs delivered a declaration of war to the British ambassador stationed in St. Petersburg, marking the second time that Britain and Russia had taken to the battlefield since the end of the first Near East War.
This time, there was ample notice. The Russian Army didn’t launch an attack until the third day after declaring war, fully in accordance with international law.
Of course, the Tsarist Government wasn’t simply playing by the rules. Deep within the Afghan Region, the British had yet to lay telegraph wires, and the fastest messages could take over a week to deliver.
London
Inside the UK Government Building, Prime Minister Gladstone, with a frown etched on his face, asked, "Wasn’t it said that the Russians weren’t ready for war? Why then has the war broken out prematurely?"
Britain wasn’t an iron simpleton; while preparing for war, they hadn’t forgotten to collect intelligence on the Russians’ preparedness.
Just yesterday, someone had assured Prime Minister Gladstone with great conviction that the Russians needed at least another three months to be ready for war.
It was now late September, and in less than three months, the Russian Empire would be covered in snow and ice. Generally speaking, the Tsarist Government wouldn’t choose this time to start a war.
Eventually, the British Government concluded that the war would break out next March or April, and accordingly, defense preparations had commenced on this timetable.
Foreign Minister George responded in a disheartened tone, "The Russians truly weren’t ready for war. Our intelligence officers embedded in the Russian Empire had confirmed this on multiple occasions.
The premature outbreak of war might be due to the Tsarist Government detecting our plans, thereby making the first move."
The intelligence was sound, and the judgment of the British Government logical, yet the Russians did not play by conventional wisdom.
With such an incident unfolding, those present couldn’t escape responsibility, and naturally, Prime Minister Gladstone didn’t delve deeper into it.
After pondering for a moment, Prime Minister Gladstone asked uncertainly, "Now that the Russians have initiated the war early, can our forces in the Afghan Region hold their ground?"
In recent decades, all of Britain’s wars against the European powers had ended in failure, and even in battles against native Afghan fighters, they had suffered heavy losses.
Now that they were about to wage a war against the Russians, Prime Minister Gladstone found it hard to have confidence in an army with such a string of dismal achievements.
Defeating the Russians was certainly the best outcome, but Prime Minister Gladstone didn’t believe the front-line troops were that effective, otherwise, he wouldn’t have requested additional reinforcements from the homeland.
At this moment, Prime Minister Gladstone couldn’t help but feel relieved that he had previously thrown the question of reinforcements to Parliament.
Should the reinforcements arrive too late, contributing to heavy losses at the front, Parliament would also bear much of the responsibility.
Army Minister Rosario shook his head, "The Russians are aggressive and will not cease until they take the Afghan Region.
The Prusso-Russian War serves as a cautionary example. At their peak, the Russians mobilized armies of four to five million, with front-line forces maintained at two million.
Central Asia might not be like Eastern Europe; the Russians can’t deploy millions of troops, but they could certainly muster three to five hundred thousand.
If the forces in the Afghan Region were our army elite, I could assure you we could hold the region, perhaps even have spare strength for a counter-offensive.
But the problem is, the majority of our troops in the Afghan Region are from the Indian Colonial Division, whose combat effectiveness is less than one-tenth of our main force."
Is it possible that the Russians would commit fewer than two hundred thousand troops?
Obviously not. In attacking the Central Asian Khanates, the Tsarist Government had already deployed well over six hundred thousand troops.
With the impending struggle against Britain over the Afghan Region, to commit merely a few tens or hundreds of thousands would imply the Tsarist Government has lost its mind.
Pausing briefly, Rosario continued, "War has erupted, and given the complex situation in the Afghan Region, the Army Department suggests an expansion of sixty infantry divisions, twenty artillery regiments, and two cavalry divisions…"
Sir Astley Cooper Key, Minister of the Navy, didn’t let Rosario finish before interjecting forcefully, "Are you joking, sir? The army only recently expanded by three infantry divisions, and total manpower has already reached a staggering three hundred thousand.
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Following your Army Department’s current plan for expansion, our total forces would exceed one million.
As far as I’m aware, the Afghan Region is mountainous, hardly suitable for large-scale troop movements. The Russians will probably commit at most three to five hundred thousand troops, any more and their logistics alone would be their downfall."
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"We have already gained the initiative; the troops at the front can build fortifications based on the terrain for defense, which really doesn’t require a lot of manpower."
"One million ground forces, are you planning to fight from Central Asia all the way to Moscow?"
"I have to object, the military budget of the United Kingdom is not unlimited. If the Army gets more, the Navy will get less."
Because of the Afghan War, the British Government has halted the arms race, and the Navy has been dissatisfied for a long time.
Now the Army is waving the flag of war to snatch resources, and Sir Astley Cooper Key simply cannot stand it anymore!
As for the needs of war, this is in itself a fallacy. Different strategies require very different levels of troop deployment."
Finance Minister George Childs: "The Sir speaks accurately; the battlefield in Afghanistan doesn’t need that many troops at all, and we are also not capable of supporting a million soldiers fighting in Afghanistan.
Land forces have never been our strong point; a decisive battle with the Russians in the Afghan Region is simply not realistic.
What we need is only to hold the Afghan Region and cut off the Russians’ notion of moving south, not to engage in a decisive battle with the Russians in Central Asia.
Even simple defense, the Indian Colonial Army is also sufficient for use. We can have as many troops of this kind as we want, and it doesn’t matter even if the casualties are great, nor will there be any trouble, and the cost is much lower."
The request was very big to begin with, and Rosario did not expect the government to agree. Being opposed was expected.
"The two of you probably haven’t grasped the severity of the issue. War is not a game, and the enemy will not move according to our plan, which is proven by the Russians instigating the war ahead of time.
The troops at the front can’t possibly fight indefinitely; troops need to be rotated and replenished; we must have sufficient reserve forces."
The Army Department calculated based on a 3:3:4 ratio, with three hundred thousand at the front, another three hundred thousand stationed in the Indian region ready for reinforcement and rotation at any moment, and four hundred thousand in reserve domestically for emergency situations.
Looking at the casualties of the Prusso-Russian War, such military resource allocation is actually very modest, and we still need supplementing from the Indian Colonial Army.
Expanding the army is not something that can be accomplished overnight, yet the situation on the battlefield is constantly changing. We must consider the worst-case scenario.
..."
Minister of the Navy Sir Astley Cooper Key: "Ridiculous, the Army is preparing for failure from the get-go, could it be..."
Seeing the argument escalate, Prime Minister Gladstone intervened: "Enough! The Russians have already attacked, if you keep arguing, prepare to collect corpses for the troops at the front!
Order the Governor of India to raise another five hundred thousand troops, and give Governor Lytton the authority to deploy troops to the Afghanistan battlefield as the situation at the front changes.
Additionally, withdraw seven infantry divisions from the home country, and call up one infantry division from Canada, Australia, and New Zealand each, to reinforce the Afghan Region immediately.
The Army must start expanding immediately, first expand with four hundred thousand troops, and later, if necessary, we’ll discuss the situation as it unfolds."
Prime Minister Gladstone originally intended to reinforce the front line with twenty infantry divisions in one go, but there were not enough forces domestically.
To continue sending reinforcements from home, they would have to wait until the expansion was complete. For now, they could only have the Indian Colonial Army hold the line.
The plan for expansion was cut in half, Rosario had planned to ask for more, but after a glance at everyone’s expressions, he decisively chose to give up.
Being able to have everyone agree on the army’s expansion was very difficult already. If he pushed too hard, these gents might think the Army was too expensive and decide to fight the Russians with cheap colonial forces.
Don’t look at how Rosario went to great lengths to belittle the combat effectiveness of the colonial army; in fact, there are several capable units within the British colonial system.
The colonial forces might not be as strong as the main British force because of their poor equipment. If they were equipped the same, it’s still an unknown whether they would be stronger or weaker.
The British Government doesn’t heavily use these cost-effective and powerful troops not because they don’t want to, but mainly because of concerns over loyalty.
Arrogant and fierce soldiers aren’t a joke; these powerful individuals do not have temperaments as manageable as the Indian Colonial Army. One wrong move could lead to chaos.
Everyone understands the danger of raising a tiger, risking it becoming a menace. With so many colonies, Britain has never had a case of a local power growing too large, and it’s this caution that has prevented it.
... 𝓷ℴ𝓋𝓅𝓊𝒷.𝒸𝓸𝓶
