NOVPUBThe sunlight lavished upon the earth, reflecting off the snow and emitting twinkling golden glows.
The ground blanketed with snow, the frozen Neva River, they all testified to the arrival of winter, pairing perfectly with St. Petersburg and its snowy landscape.
In the past, with such fine weather, Alexander III would have certainly taken his family out to bask in the winter sun.
At this moment, within the Gatchina Palace, the upper echelons of the Tsarist Government were gathered, deliberating the nation’s forthcoming policies.
Foreign Minister Oscar Hemenes: "Last night, the French Ambassador revealed at the banquet that the French government is preparing to increase its support for us.
As long as our forces on the front capture Herat or the Wakhan Corridor, they will underwrite one billion francs of war bonds for us.
The intentions of the French are very clear, they want to use us to weaken the British. The Anglo-French Alliance is practically dead in name.
Before this, the Austrian Government also expressed a similar sentiment, it’s just that the French are more anxious."
The British have done too much mischief; now, they have enemies all over the world. The current international situation is very favorable for us. It now depends on the military."
Turning an enemy into an ally would be considered a miracle in the history of diplomacy. However, given the complex relationship between England and France, such events are not unusual.
England and France are archenemies; undermining the British requires no reason; if the French government were wholeheartedly helping the British, that would be the real issue.
Army Minister Ivanov: "The front lines are progressing very well. We’ve pushed the frontline to the key western town of Herat in Afghanistan and the eastern transport hub of Kunduz.
Any breakthrough at these points, and we’ll seize the initiative in the war. From the current situation, the chance of capturing Herat or the Wakhan Corridor before the British reinforcements arrive is very high.
The only issue testing us now is logistics. As the front moves forward, the supply of logistics is becoming more sluggish.
If this situation does not change, it won’t be long before our frontline troops have to stop and wait for supplies."
Pinning the blame is something everyone can do, and after all, Ivanov was stating the facts.
The early success of the Russian Army was built on sufficient supplies. With the pre-war reserves exhausted by the outbreak, they now completely rely on support from the rear.
Hearing that logistical supplies were falling behind, Alexander III’s face immediately soured, his gaze, filled with a murderous intent, turned towards Minister of Logistics Agent, as if to say: You’d better give me a reasonable explanation, or else...
The well-prepared Agent calmly explained: "The logistics supplies falling behind is not our fault.
The route in Central Asia is unstable, with frequent guerrilla sabotage severely affecting the logistics progress.
Also, the frequent redeployment of frontline troops often happens without prior notice to the logistics department, forcing our people to make wasted journeys, how could it not be slow?"
Ivanov snorted coldly: "If your logistics department can’t handle it, then hand over the transportation of supplies to the Army Department and stop making so many lousy excuses.
Guerrilla attacks?
The military has already cleared the surrounding resistance organizations and has deployed heavy troops to protect the safety of the convoys.
Since the war began, the convoys have been attacked by guerrillas seventeen times, never exceeding five hundred people, and nine of those were provocations you started.
Even after moving the local residents thirty kilometers away to reduce conflicts, you still manage to take wrong turns.
As for not notifying you on time, that’s nonsense.
The logistics department’s major material movements require approval from St. Petersburg. The front line commanders only have the right to adjust supplies at or below the division level.
How can they notify you in advance when the situation on the battlefield is unpredictable, and we need to react spontaneously?"
The conflict between the military and the logistics department is actually an extension of the underlying conflict between the military and bureaucratic officials, essentially a struggle for a say.
Logistics is the government’s best way to restrain the military. From the perspective of bureaucratic officials, sacrificing a bit of efficiency to limit the military’s power is not worth mentioning at all.
Particularly after the invention of the telegraph, which sped up the communication process, many European countries enhanced their control over logistical supplies.
Don’t mention this era, even during World War II, the logistical systems of nations were still in a mess.
It wasn’t that they didn’t know how to solve this, the problem was that once the government handed logistics over to the military, it would lose its leverage over the troops and a situation where the military grew too powerful could easily arise.
Although there were problems with everyone’s logistical systems, this was after all an era of comparative incompetence, where being a little better than others meant success.
Agent replied calmly, "Marshal, leave professional matters to the professionals.
I must be blunt, the situation would only worsen if the military managed logistics.
Don’t forget that the Logistics Department not only distributes supplies but also, more importantly, gathers them, which involves many complex issues.
Regarding the issue of untimely distribution, our Logistics Department is already trying to find a solution, and the situation will improve after a while."
Giving up the authority to allocate logistical supplies was absolutely out of the question. Without this power, the Logistics Department would really become a wet nurse, and one without a salary at that.
Besides the loss of power, more importantly, there was a loss of personal interests. The positions within the Logistics Department were lucrative posts, and it was only by controlling both the procurement and the distribution of supplies that people could make a fortune.
To dispel the military’s intentions, Agent did not hesitate to directly threaten them. He made it clear to Marshal Ivanov that without the cooperation of the Logistics Department, the military simply couldn’t gather the supplies they needed.
The squabble between his subordinates was something Alexander III pretended not to see.
A discord between those who managed the troops and those who managed the provisions was something he was pleased to observe; had the two been as close as brothers, Alexander III really would have lost sleep over it.
Seeing that the atmosphere was off, Finance Minister Alisher spoke up to mediate, "Enough, both of you. The Logistics Department will increase the authority of the front-line allocation officers, who will report directly to General Okinets, to ensure timely distribution of supplies to the front.
In addition, we will increase the domestic transportation speed of supplies. If the quantity is insufficient, we can make purchases from Austria, but we must do everything we can to guarantee the supply for the frontline troops."
The face of the financial backer cannot be ignored, whether it’s the Logistics Department or the military, both rely on the Finance Ministry for funding.
Against such a backdrop, the Finance Minister also acted as a lubricant, mediating conflicts among departments. Though he didn’t have the title of Prime Minister, he effectively exercised some of the Prime Minister’s powers.
Marshal Ivanov harbored no illusions about actually obtaining logistics authority. If the military hadn’t gotten it during the Prusso-Russian War, then it was even less likely now.
As long as the front-line commanders could have temporary authority to allocate supplies and ensure the support of their troops, he would be satisfied.
Marshal Ivanov accepted the proposal, giving Agent no excuse to refuse, so he reluctantly agreed.
The chaos in allocating supplies wasn’t a deliberate act of sabotage against the military. The fundamental reason for such issues was simply the overall insufficiency of supplies.
This involved deeper reasons, with too many interest groups entangled, leaving Agent no choice but to cover up the problem.
In the face of material scarcity, robbing Peter to pay Paul was unavoidable. Many errors in distributing supplies occurred because front-line bureaucrats, driven to desperation, used distribution errors as an excuse to delay.
After all, the procedure for exchanging supplies was complicated and time-consuming.
What should have been a three-month supply, might have been fudged to last only two months, with the remaining month’s supplies saved—or rather, owed. When they would be made up depended on the specific situation; as long as the manipulation was not excessive, no major chaos would ensue.
What would the Russian Army do without sufficient supplies at the front?
This problem was one that our ancestors had already figured out a solution to: sending soldiers out to plunder was sufficient, after all, it was a Russian military tradition.
Of course, this carried risks. In the original timeline, during World War I, because the conflict lasted so long and the Russian Army could find nowhere to plunder, this tactic eventually collapsed and buried the Russian Empire.
After the brief interlude, Alexander III commented with a smile, "The situation is becoming increasingly interesting now. The Austrians support our declaration of war against the British, and the French also support us in declaring war against the British.
It’s curious that France and Austria have come to think alike; I wouldn’t believe there wasn’t a conspiracy behind it if you told me so."
"What do you think are the true intentions of France and Austria? What sort of interests are significant enough for them to offer us such favorable terms?"
Suspicion is a ruler’s instinct, and the tactics of France and Austria are not clever, their intention to provoke an England-Russia war is all too apparent.
Knowing that a conspiracy lies beneath, the Russian Empire might have become a pawn, yet, for the sake of benefits, Alexander III still chose to fall into the trap.
There’s no way around it; the current international situation is clear: the Russian Empire’s path to the west has been blocked.
With lessons learned from the Prusso-Russian War, even the most zealous of the War Party does not believe that expansion into the European Continent is promising.
That leaves only the options to advance north, south, or east. Undoubtedly, heading north is futile—beyond the ice of the Arctic Ocean lies the tough nut of the Nordic Federation.
Heading east isn’t an appealing choice either, given the extremely harsh climate. Just the journey from west to east takes a year, which is utterly unsuitable for the movement of large armies.
Advancing south became the only and best choice. Although it means competing with the British, what doesn’t require competition these days?
Even if he was to be a pawn, Alexander III intended to be one that could leap off the chessboard at any time, rather than being blandly sacrificed.
Foreign Minister Oscar Hemenes: "Looking at the current international situation, our support from France and Austria in fighting a war against the British leads the Foreign Affairs Department to suggest there are three possibilities.
First, they want us to engage in a bloody conflict with the British, weakening our strength so France and Austria can sit back and profit from the war.
Considering the extent of their support, profiting from war can be ruled out; the funds they are providing aren’t even enough to break even from trade.
Second, they intend to use our actions to seriously weaken Britannia and then divide it amongst themselves.
This possibility is even less likely. Although the French have repeatedly promised to choose the right time to go to war with the British, they are insisting that Austria declare war on Britain first.
We have probed, and the Vienna Government is not ready to fall out with the British, let alone go to war with them.
Third, France and Austria wish to use the Afghan war to tie both us and the British down, making it easier for them to take action on the European Continent.
As for what specific actions, it’s still unclear. Based on their behavior, we can infer that the French government is more eager. In contrast, the Austrian Government is relatively lukewarm; they seem yet to decide.
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On this point, we can tentatively conclude that France and Austria have not reached an agreement, and their strategic goals might even come into conflict.
I personally think that France and Austria’s target should be the Central European Region.
Austria wants to take the opportunity to unify the Germany Region, but they are not confident about managing it in the face of French obstruction, nor are they willing to pass up the chance.
The French aim to use this opportunity to expand into Central Europe, likely intending to annex Belgium and parts of the German Federation.
Primarily, it’s the territories west of the Rhine River they are after, where the coal mines essential to the French can make up for their shortage of resources.
Of course, this is just speculation; the French government’s appetite might not be that large.
After all, the strength of the German Federation is not to be underestimated, and with Austria at its side, they would certainly intervene. Judging by strength, the odds for the French against the German-Austrian Army are not high.
Unless the French can achieve a swift victory, seizing the territories mentioned above before Austria sends in troops, creating a fait accompli and using the formidable Rhine River as a natural barrier to stop the German-Austrian Army."
Strategic plans are not something to be hidden easily—no evidence is needed, just motivation, and without a doubt, France and Austria both have the motive to expand into Central Europe.
While initiating war with the British, the Tsarist Government also hasn’t neglected the European Continent.
In fact, without France and Austria checking each other on the European Continent, the Tsarist Government wouldn’t dare to move southward fully.
Army Minister Ivanov shook his head: "I agree with Your Excellency’s judgment, the third possibility is the most likely.
However, I have a different view regarding the specifics. It’s true that France and Austria are interested in the Central Region, but the strength of the German Federation is not weak.
Austria could undertake the annexation of the German Federation through political means from within, which has some chance of success.
If the French were to launch a direct attack on the German Federation, even if Austria didn’t send troops to intervene, they would still lose a few teeth.
The French government couldn’t possibly fail to see this; rather than take risks in an uncertain situation, it would be better for them to turn to a secondary option and annex Belgium instead."
Due to the Prusso-Russian War, the Tsarist Government upgraded its assessment of the fighting capabilities of the states within the German Confederation by a notch.
Purely on paper, the current strength of the German Federation is not weak at all.
Its military strength is almost on par with that of the former Prusso-Polish Federation, its economy ranks just behind the four powers of England, France, Russia, and Austria, its heavy industry is on level terms with France, and it boasts a population of more than twenty-five million.
Measuring others by his own standards, Marshal Ivanov did not believe the French would bite this hard bone, especially when there was a lion ready to hunt right behind it.
Compared to that, the difficulty of annexing Belgium was much lower. The Bi-Austrian secrecy was unknown to all; on the surface, annexing Belgium would only offend the British.
But as far as Anglo-French relations are concerned, offense is offense. Since they’ve even engaged in war bond issues with the Russians, what wouldn’t the French dare to do?
Foreign Minister Oscar Hemenes shrugged, "Marshal, the French are not as rational as you. They pride themselves as the world’s foremost army.
You haven’t been to France, so you may not know, the French are particularly proud. Starting with Napoleon III, the French government has been promoting the invincibility of France.
Many French hold notions still rooted in the Napoleonic Era, viewing themselves as invincible. Even our past defeat of them in the Near East War has not changed this."
The Near East War can’t be counted; England, France, and Russia all see themselves as victors, with the only acknowledged loser being the Ottoman Empire, which has now faded from history.
Oscar Hemenes could use the Near East War to make a point, but Marshal Ivanov had no face to mention the Near East War.
Even though the Russian Army did win a strategic victory, tactically they suffered a complete mess. The so-called victory was nothing more than a heap of human lives.
The casualty ratio of the Russian Army was simply unbearable to look at. Often, Russian forces double in size would still get beaten down by the enemy.
In the eyes of a traditional soldier like Marshal Ivanov, that was not a victory for the Russian Army, but rather a shame.
Sensing the mood was off, Alexander III intervened, "Alright, the size of the French appetite is a minor issue.
As much as we don’t want to acknowledge it, the balance of power among the four major European powers has indeed been disrupted in recent years, and we are the weakest link.
The strengths of England, France, and Austria all surpass ours, and our current competition with the British over the Afghan Region is also the result of support from France and Austria.
However, if France and Austria can incite a war between us and the British for their benefit, why can’t we do the same?
The problem of Central Europe is the core conflict between France and Austria; whether it’s Austria’s ambition to unify the German Region or France’s desire to move into Central Europe, as soon as one of them makes the first move, intense conflict will erupt.
Now, as we fight the British, France and Austria have no worries about their rear. If we give them a push from behind, the likelihood of war breaking out between them is very high.
By using the war to weaken both France and Austria, we may have the opportunity to re-establish our dominant position on the European Continent, or at least bring them back to the same starting line."
Betraying allies is something anyone can do; if France and Austria can use the Russian Empire as a pawn, Alexander III can also strike back.
England and Russia have started fighting, and after the war both will certainly suffer heavy losses. Without depleting the strength of France and Austria, the gap in power between the four great powers will be irrevocably widened.
Foreign Minister Oscar Hemenes reminded, "Your Majesty, if a war breaks out between France and Austria, we lose external support.
Without the support of France and Austria, simply relying on our own strength, the Afghan battlefield will likely..."
Alexander III cut him off, "No worries, instigating a war between France and Austria is not something that happens overnight.
Even if we are to take action, it will be when the Afghanistan battlefield is nearly settled. Until then, we are good allies.
What we need to do now is to extract as many loans and supplies as possible from France and Austria. If they want us to risk our lives, they must offer us benefits."
Upon hearing this explanation, everyone breathed a sigh of relief. Provoking a war between France and Austria was no issue as long as it did not affect the situation in Afghanistan.
