NOVPUBChapter 443 -66 An Introduction to Statistics
The tiger refuses to descend from its lair, a fruitless effort to lure the snake from the hole.
Seeing no movement from the fortress鈥檚 defenders, the Herders slink back, once again completely surrounding the Bridgehead Fortress.
Just as Colonel Jeska had anticipated, the Terdon Tribe hadn鈥檛 lost their order; the pretense of disarray and panicked flight was merely a facade.
It鈥檚 actually more accurate to say that being able to feign such a convincing defeat, without devolving into an actual rout, further proved the Terdon leader鈥檚 control over his people.
Dark clouds hung low, and a deadly winter wind howled as vultures circled in the sky, portending more death and slaughter.
Watching the barbarian horde return after being defeated, the soldiers and militiamen struggled with disappointment and growing anxiety.
...
No one sang the hymns of praise anymore, and morale was not as high as before.
The previous tears of gratitude were now extinguished.
Winters felt some schadenfreude. He really wanted to point out, 鈥淚t was us who led you to victory, yet you thank the gods instead. How does that make sense?鈥
But such words were far too blasphemous, so he kept them between himself and Bard.
Compared to the gloomy atmosphere among the soldiers, the officers were relatively relaxed and at ease.
The Terdon Tribe鈥檚 first siege had proven the star-shaped fortress鈥檚 robust defense.
Lacking siege weapons, the Cavalry were helpless against the earthen walls and deep trenches; all they could do was fill them with their bodies.
潣梆潣佛潟橉潡?co
If the Herders were determined to gnaw on this tough bone, there was an easy solution鈥攖he bridge stood right behind the fortress. If it came down to it, they could retreat across the river and blow up the bridge, leaving the barbarians to stare helplessly from the bank.
This time, the Herders smartened up and aligned their troops beyond the effective range of the cannons.
Puffs of smoke rose in the distance, the number of enemies so immense they seemed endless.
Atop the watchtower, Mason chatted intermittently with Winters.
鈥淗ey, do you notice something?鈥 Mason asked with a puzzled expression. 鈥淔rom leaving to coming back, doesn鈥檛 it seem like there are even more Herder Cavalry out there?鈥
Winters shared the same feeling. 鈥淭his morning, I saw about ten thousand Herder Cavalry. Now, there have to be at least twenty thousand.鈥
鈥淩einforcements?鈥
鈥淲ho knows?鈥 Winters shrugged. 鈥淭he colonel said that if the three tribes gritted their teeth, they could muster a hundred thousand archers. It wouldn鈥檛 surprise me if the full strength of the Terdon Tribe came out, given they even brought the ritual object, the 鈥楪olden Man鈥? to bolster their ranks.鈥
Mason shook his head with a wry smile, then hesitantly offered some advice to Winters: 鈥淒o you mind if I give some pointers?鈥
Winters was somewhat perplexed but answered earnestly, 鈥淪enior, please speak your mind.鈥
鈥淚n my opinion, instead of having your musketeers fire quickly, you should figure out how to make them shoot more accurately.鈥
Mason took out a sheepskin scroll filled with writing, looking expectantly at Winters. 鈥淒o you have statistics classes in your infantry courses?鈥
鈥淲e only have arithmetic and geometry,鈥 Winters vehemently shook his head.
鈥淟et me explain to you the concept of percentages then.鈥
[Author鈥檚 Note: Attentive readers may have noticed that so far, no use of percentages has occurred in this book. Terms like 鈥榯wo-tenths鈥? 鈥榦ne-fourth鈥? 鈥榟alf鈥 have been used instead.
This is because Winters Montagne has not learned about fractions or percentages. Only artillery officer students take statistics classes.
The history of statistics is very ancient and can be traced back to Aristotle鈥檚 鈥楥onstitution of the Cities鈥? The word statistics is derived from the word state. However, fractions and percentages have a more recent history, only appearing in the eighteenth century.
In this book, it鈥檚 assumed that Ned the Marshal鈥檚 friend, the founder of the artillery discipline, General Lionheart Euler, introduced concepts like 鈥榝raction鈥 and 鈥榩ercentage鈥? 𝒏𝙤𝒗𝙥𝒖𝒃.𝙘𝙤𝒎
After being taught by Mason, Winters learned a little about the rudiments of statistics. So starting from here, the notion of percentages and statistics will be officially introduced XD. Knowledge is power, new weapon acquired!]
After explaining what percentages are, Mason, holding the sheepskin scroll, recited, 鈥淥utside the fortress, I counted 347 Herder corpses. However, only 215 of them were near the trenches; the rest were outside the range of musket fire.鈥
Winters nodded. It had taken over two hundred deaths before the Terdon Tribe withdrew, which showed their tenacity.
Mason licked his finger and flipped to the next page. 鈥淥n the walls, you positioned 341 musketeers who fired six and a half rounds, theoretically reaching 2210 shots. However, due to misfires, I looked at the data on your list, and your men actually fired a total of 1147 shots.鈥
As Mason spoke, Winters listened intently. The image of his pathfinder senior seemed to grow in stature.
Clearing his throat, Mason concluded, 鈥淭hat means, even if all 215 people by the trenches were killed by your musketeers, the hit rate would only be 18.7 percent, with the remaining 81.3 percent being misses.鈥
Winters gasped, 鈥淭here could be cases where one person was killed by two shots鈥︹€
Mason raised his hand to halt his junior and continued, 鈥淒on鈥檛 forget, those 215 include the kills by my cannons and the musketeers you positioned below the walls. The actual kill efficiency is much lower than 18.7 percent. I estimate it鈥檚 less than 8 percent.
In other words, for the 1147 shots you fired, less than one hundred hit their mark. 52 percent of your musketeers, on average, fired only 1.51 shots over six rounds of firing, and less than 10 percent of the musketeers carried out all six shots.鈥
Mason rolled up the scroll and tapped Winters on the forehead, sharply rebuking, 鈥淵ou wastrel! Isn鈥檛 this a waste of ammunition? At the rate you鈥檙e going, you鈥檙e using at least 3.5 times more gunpowder than necessary, and our gunpowder reserves will be depleted in three days.鈥
Winters was left speechless.
He took the scroll, read through it carefully, then looked up and said, 鈥淎 48 percent misfire rate? That鈥檚 too high, it needs to be lowered. An 8 percent kill rate? That鈥檚 not bad!鈥
鈥淣ot bad?!鈥 Mason said displeased. 鈥淓ven the cannons are more efficient than that.鈥
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