NOVPUBOn May 20, 1874, the Tsarist Government declared war on Poland, and that afternoon, the Russian Army crossed the border and launched an attack on the Kingdom of Poland, sparking another Russo-Polish War.
Less than a week had elapsed between the onset of the Russo-Polish conflict and the outbreak of war. This efficiency shattered Franz’s perception of the Tsarist Government.
The fruits of Alexander II’s reforms were already evident in this efficiency. Based on the usual pace of the Tsarist Government, it would have taken months to carry out such actions.
The sudden Russo-Polish War caught many by surprise. Governments across Europe were unable to respond in time, and war had already erupted.
In London, Prime Minister Gelson was completely drained. He was occupied with the national elections on one hand and concerned with the shifting political situation in Europe on the other, even pushing the Irish issue to the back burner.
"The Near East war continues, and now the Russians have provoked war with the Polish. Have they so quickly forgotten the lessons of their previous failures in waging war on multiple fronts? Can anyone tell me what has transpired in between?"
With his rich political experience, Prime Minister Gelson was certain the Russo-Polish War was not the result of a single conflict. Over the years, there had been more than a hundred conflicts between Russia and Poland, yet this one escalated into war.
The rapid actions of the Russians clearly indicated prior planning. The Near East war had distracted Britannia, leading the London Government to assume that the Russian war preparations targeted the Ottoman Empire.
As such, the British had been pondering how to preserve the Ottoman Empire. Now there was no need to worry, for with the Tsarist Government provoking the Russo-Polish War, they could no longer dedicate as much energy to the Near East conflict.
Foreign Minister McLean said, "Your Excellency, based on the intelligence we’ve gathered, it appears the Polish are in deep trouble.
The Berlin Government is not eager to send troops to rescue the Kingdom of Poland. No troops have been deployed since the war erupted, and even military mobilization has been lethargic.
The election for the Polish throne is imminent, and Wilhelm I’s approval rating is very high. Under normal circumstances, his election would be almost guaranteed.
The biggest obstacle now is the current Polish Government, which shows signs of preparing to interfere with the election through irregular means, aiming to knock Wilhelm I out of the race.
The ambitious Prussians would not find it odd to use another’s hand to kill, at least not to prematurely oust the Polish Government."
From the current situation, it seems Prussia and Russia must have struck a deal behind the scenes. The Vienna Government has yet to make a move, and we cannot yet accurately assess what role they play in this.
Additionally, Prussian diplomats have recently been very active, frequently meeting with high-level officials across Europe. Just three days ago, I had an in-depth discussion with the Prussian Envoy to London on the matter of Poland.
In order to counter the Russian threat, they wish to form a Prussian-Polish Federation and have sought our support.
If nothing goes wrong, the Prussians have also made contact with France and Austria; it’s just unclear whether they have struck any deals."
Prime Minister Gelson nodded, finding this explanation fitting. If it were said that Prussia and Poland were unaware of the sudden eruption of the Russo-Polish War, it would make no sense.
If there was collusion between Prussia and Russia, then everything made sense. The Prussians would have covered for the Tsarist Government, creating conditions for the Russian Army’s invasion of Poland, and it would not be surprising for the Polish Government to be kept in the dark.
Unlike other governments, the Polish Government is a jumble with nearly every great power having their own "nails" hammered into it.
The Kingdom of Prussia has the strongest influence in Poland, with many swayed by the Berlin Government. Coupled with the Polish Government’s own follies and its fiery relation with the military faction, intercepting part of the intelligence was too easy.
Prime Minister Gelson frowned, "If the Austrians are involved, then it would be the fourth partition of Poland by Prussia, Russia, and Austria.
This is not a good sign. If they continue, eventually there might not be many countries left on the European continent.
If Austria is not involved, what interests have Prussia and Russia offered in return for the Vienna Government’s tacit consent?
Similarly, what benefits did the Berlin Government promise the French to gain the support of the Paris Government, or perhaps the Prussians did not secure their support at all.
All these questions must be clarified. I do not believe Prussia and Russia could partition the Kingdom of Poland without securing the acquiescence of France and Austria.
The interests capable of bribing France and Austria must be substantial. Both Prussia and Russia are impoverished, with mediocre industrial and economic power, so their promises likely aren’t economic, and thus, the answer is emerging.
We cannot allow their deal to be concluded. Otherwise, France and Austria would grow too strong."
The British foreign policy has always followed interests, and when analyzing problems, it considers an array of interested factors.
Using this analytical method, many obscure issues are clarified, and by tracing back to the interests, much can be understood.
Great powers can hardly conceal their strategies from the countless eyes watching. However, no country has only a single strategy. Among the numerous strategies, there are primary and secondary ones, and their priority shifts with the changing international situation.
At present, it is widely recognized in Europe: For France, the most important strategy is to assimilate the Italian Area, followed by expanding into Central Europe to seize territories west of the Rhine River.
For Austria, the most crucial strategy is the unification of the Germany Region, mainly that of the German Federation Empire with its high public support, and only then comes expansion into the Ottoman Empire.
Due to mutual restraints among European countries, France’s secondary strategy cannot be pursued, and likewise, Austria’s apparent most important strategy is unfeasible.
However, should France and Austria reach a compromise and Prussia and Russia tacitly allow their actions, the situation would dramatically change. The remaining countries would be helpless to oppose.
Finance Minister Laruoke Lloyd: "The situation is not that bad, if it really comes to that, then France and Austria will have to resolve their conflict once and for all.
Clearly, neither France nor Austria is prepared for war at the moment. At least until the field has been cleared, I don’t believe they will start a war.
Of course, to avoid such a situation from happening, I think it’s necessary to strengthen the power of the German Federation Empire.
If the Prussians want to annex Poland, then let them give up the Rhineland region. For Prussia, it’s an exclave anyway, and the French are eyeing it greedily.
Instead of letting the French increase their strength, it’s better to toss it to the German Federation Empire; then France and Austria can only keep each other in check."
This is an overt plot; with the French Empire at its zenith, being their neighbor is tragic, given the increased pressure on national defense.
The Rhineland region is just an exclave, and with the Russian Empire as a formidable enemy to the east, should the French decide to make a move, the Kingdom of Prussia would be essentially powerless to resist.
Since they can’t keep it, the Rhineland region’s status in the hearts of the Berlin Government has greatly diminished. To exchange it for the annexation of the Kingdom of Poland is likely to be agreed upon by many.
Giving the Rhineland region to the German Federation Empire, the British are also up to no good. Once the Rhineland is integrated into the German Federation, France and Austria will just have to continue restraining each other.
Even if the Vienna Government wants to compromise and join France in carving up an enlarged German Federation Empire, the German people won’t agree!
Nationalism dictates that once the French set their sights on the Rhineland, Austria must stand with the German Federation, and the Vienna Government dares not make concessions.
Conversely, if Austria wants to annex the German Federation Empire, the French would also not agree. Allowing Austria’s influence to extend west of the Rhine, how would France ensure its strategic security?
Unless one side falls, the other’s goals could possibly be achieved. Under such circumstances, the British can play the balance between France and Austria.
Whether an imbalance of power will occur between France and Austria, that’s a matter for the future. The foreign policy of the London Government has always been focused on the present, not chasing after an elusive future.
No one can guarantee what will happen in decades or centuries. Today’s ally could be tomorrow’s enemy and the day after might again become an ally; diplomatic precautions are simply a joke.
Prime Minister Gelson: "There is no rush on this issue. First, let the news leak to the German Federation. If they want to obtain the Rhineland region, they must also pay a price.
Once they’ve acquired the Rhineland region, the strength of the German Federation will greatly increase, making them the second-strongest power on the European Continent, just behind Spain.
We have to put in the effort to persuade the Prussians and appease the French; they can’t expect to pay nothing in return!"
In a short time, Prime Minister Gelson made a judgment. It was highly likely that the Prussians would give up the Rhineland region, which meant they could rid themselves of the French threat.
As for the losses incurred, the German Federation Empire can fully compensate. The German Federation Empire is nearly all of Germany’s wealthiest regions, financially much stronger than the Berlin Government; selling at a good price should not be a problem.
With this money, many issues could be easily resolved. In the next Prusso-Russian war, the Kingdom of Prussia would no longer be without a chance of winning.
As a broker, Britannia could also gain political benefits from this and expand its influence in the German Federation.
…
What happened within the London Government was naturally unknown to the outside world; everyone’s attention was drawn to the wars.
The Near East War and the Prusso-Polish War broke out simultaneously; everyone was waiting for the reaction of Prussia and Austria. Many were speculating whether a full-scale war would erupt on the European Continent.
Prussia, Poland, and the Ottoman Empire can be seen as allies; in their opposition to Russia, they are just one treaty short of an official alliance.
Russia and Austria are also allies; in theory, now is the Tsarist Government’s chance to drag Austria into the fray. If full-scale war breaks out between the two, Prusso-Polish + Ottoman could certainly not defeat Russia + Austria, and thus they would have to drag others into the conflict.
At this point, it was time to end the fantasy. On May 23, 1874, Austria’s Foreign Ministry made its position clear: The Vienna Government would absolutely maintain neutrality in the Prusso-Polish War.
This reassured everyone; so-called full-scale European wars were non-existent, and small countries no longer had to worry about taking sides.
Ankara, the decision of the Vienna Government left Sultan Abdul-Aziz I very disappointed; he had been hoping for a European war to erupt, easing their military pressure.
Now there was no need to consider that. No country in Europe is foolish; who would want to go to war without benefit? It was not surprising that the Vienna Government stayed neutral in the Russia-Poland War.
Territorial expansion on the European Continent is very difficult; the biggest problem lies in the legal basis. Austria has no legal basis for Poland, and occupation is simply unlawful.
This is different from expanding in the Balkan Peninsula; seizing territory from the Ottoman Empire mitigates concerns about legal issues and avoids condemnation by public opinion. The Vienna Government could then boast the title of "Liberator," not aggressor.
Seizing Poland is different, although the Polish Government is not popular, it is still a sovereign state recognized by all; taking Polish territory would be an aggression.
Unable to seize territory and with the Polish Government too poor to even recoup war costs, it was normal for Austria not to be interested in the Polish Region.
