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The sudden Russo-Polish conflict shattered all the plans of Prime Minister Dobroborsky. If mishandled, the two countries could erupt into full-scale war.
Against this backdrop, without the support of the Kingdom of Prussia, Poland did not even have the strength to fight a single battle. It could be said that the Tsarist Government did the Prussians a huge favor, forcing the Polish Government to make compromises.
But was the matter that simple? The Tsar was not foolish; why would they help their enemy without sufficient benefits?
While the Polish Government remained in a state of confusion, Franz in faraway Vienna had already figured out the ins and outs of the situation. It was nothing more than a secret deal struck between Prussia and Russia to partition the Kingdom of Poland.
In the face of interests, there are no enemies. The Tsarist Government sought to recover lost lands, and the Prussians desired to expand their power, both setting their sights on the Polish.
A few years ago, both sides were fighting to the death, with the scars of war yet to fade, but once again they had teamed up.
To ordinary people, this might seem incredibly incredible, but reality was that absurd.
For the Kingdom of Prussia, swallowing Poland whole was tempting, but the sheer size of the Kingdom of Poland, amounting to about seventy to eighty percent of Prussia’s own size, could choke them if they bit off more than they could chew.
Against this backdrop, choosing to partition and thus lower operational difficulties and share international pressures was indeed the best choice.
The Berlin Government’s cooperation with the Russians was also forced. Among the countries bordering Poland, only Prussia, Russia, and Austria were neighbors. Austria was too strong; the Prussians did not dare to make moves against a tiger, preferring to cooperate with an enemy instead.
Even Franz could boldly speculate that the Prussians were ready to play both sides. Perhaps at this moment, they had already sent emissaries to contact Austria’s Foreign Ministry. By promising Austria the territories coveted by the Russians, they could take the opportunity to provoke discord between Russia and Austria.
Setting aside the intelligence in his hands, Franz paid it no more mind. Without desire, one has no demands; having no real interest in the Polish Region, Franz naturally did not care about the secret scheming of Prussia and Russia.
Let them calculate however they may, as long as Austria stood firm, all conspiracies and trickeries would pale before absolute power.
The more prepared Prussia and Russia were, the more devastating the next war would be. If both governments were wise, the best action at this time would be to drag others into the fray, preferably dragging along those nations in Europe who enjoyed watching from the sidelines.
Otherwise, in the next war, neither Prussia nor Russia would be the victors. The onlooking England, France, and Austria only needed to intervene midway to render their efforts fruitless.
Unfortunately, everyone was no fool. The alliance of England, France, and Austria spoke volumes. Neither Prussia nor Russia were masters of diplomacy; attempting to dismantle the Tripartite Alliance and pull others to their side was an operation of immense difficulty.
Austria had no interest in expanding on the European Continent, the French had no time for war, and the British, ever the stirrers of trouble, enjoyed stabbing from behind. Hoping for them to take the field personally was wishful thinking!
All three were not so easily swayed, and just the effort to bring them down was not something Prussia and Russia could afford. The triad of England, France, and Austria was better at playing the game of gaining without giving anything in return.
Theoretically, a struggle for world hegemony existed among England, France, and Austria; the three major powers should have been rife with contradictions, but sadly, those contradictions had not reached the breaking point.
For example: the British’ maritime hegemony was of great interest to France and Austria, but restrained by power, neither country had the strength to challenge the British maritime rights.
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For instance, the struggle for dominance on the European continent between France and Austria might appear to be a matter of life and death on the surface. In reality, Austria lacked interest in the continental hegemony and was essentially too lazy to contend for it; meanwhile, the French were busy dealing with internal issues and couldn’t spare the time for continental supremacy.
In the overseas colonial movement, all three countries were the beneficiaries of the status quo. If they were to backstab each other, the cost of maintaining their colonies would skyrocket. If they could come to a compromise, they could all save a substantial amount of money.
As long as England, France, and Austria did not stab each other in the back, other countries would have to think twice about fishing in troubled waters due to the potential consequences of being exposed.
No need to look further than the current colonial conflicts among England, France, and Austria, which occur quite frequently but have been much more restrained since the formation of their alliance. At least there haven’t been any more instances of hundreds-strong colonial exploration teams vanishing without a trace.
Negotiations about the division of colonial territories among England, France, and Austria have already begun. Judging by the current progress, there will likely be an outcome in about a year or two, and conflicts in their overseas colonial activities will further decrease.
The one pushing all this isn’t Franz, nor is it Napoleon III, but John Bull, playing the role of the troublemaker.
Colonies were established to make money, not to incur losses for the sake of appearances. The British, owning the most colonies, also had the greatest number of conflicts overseas.
Since the late 19th century, the maintenance costs of the great colonial empires have been soaring. If this fighting continues, no one will make any money.
For its own benefit, John Bull also had to establish a set of rules to restrict nations’ activities in their colonies, to prevent everyone from stabbing each other in the back every day and to enable peaceful money-making.
Of course, this only applied to territories with recognized ownership. When it came to unclaimed colonies, it was still a free-for-all, with no one holding back whatsoever.
This international situation was completely different from the original timeline. Now, the main international tension in Europe was the Prusso-Russian conflict.
In comparison, the Anglo-Austrian, Anglo-French, and Franco-Austrian conflicts had all become secondary. The alliance between England, France, and Austria showed that their mutual interests outweighed their differences.
John Bull desired a balance of power on the European continent, not constant turmoil and warfare.
War means uncertainty, and starting a war without solid assurance meant no one could guarantee the final direction the situation would take.
What if the situation got out of control and spawned a colossus? The cautionary tale of Napoleon, who almost succeeded, is not far off in history.
Now, France and Austria were restraining each other, as were Prussia and Russia, putting the European continent in a delicate balance.
Any change in one country could trigger a chain reaction. The last war in the Near East taught the British the price of meddling in continental wars too carelessly.
From the British perspective, it would be ideal if the situation on the European continent remained balanced. Whenever conflicts arose, they could simply act as the arbitrators.
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On May 18, 1874, the Tsarist Government issued a diplomatic note to the Kingdom of Poland, demanding that the Polish Government hand over "the perpetrators of the border conflict" within 24 hours and cede the Kiev area to the Russian Empire as reparations.
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Such conditions were obviously unacceptable to the Polish Government. Prime Minister Dombrovsky was furious, yet powerless. 𝔫𝖔𝔳𝔭𝔲𝔟.𝖈𝔬𝔪
The standing army of the Russian Empire numbered 876,000, while the Kingdom of Poland, despite its efforts, could muster only 136,000. There was simply no way to bridge this chasm in military strength.
In Warsaw, an office with only two tables, four chairs, and a filing cabinet was the working place of Prime Minister Dombrovsky.
Strapped for cash, the Polish Government, led by an example set by Prime Minister Dombrovsky himself, cut administrative costs as much as possible.
In this regard, Prime Minister Dombrovsky acted impeccably. Unfortunately, a nation cannot be governed by frugality alone.
Prime Minister Dombrovsky asked, "What do the great powers say? Will they intervene in the actions of the Russians?"
Unable to accept the Russians’ terms and with war on the horizon, Prime Minister Dombrovsky could not help but pin his hopes on international intervention.
Minister of Foreign Affairs V. Vlublevsky said, "The British Ambassador has agreed to mediate this conflict, while the French Ambassador has not given a clear answer, possibly waiting for a resolution from the Paris Government.
The Prussians have promised to support us, committing to send troops to our aid at the first sign of war.
Austria has not made a stance, but due to their alliance with Russia, they will at most remain neutral, unlikely to side with us.
The rest of the European countries are watching the situation; what choices they will make can only be determined after the situation becomes clearer."
After hearing this result, Prime Minister Dombrovsky felt no relief whatsoever.
The response from the European countries chilled him. As the diligent guard of Europe against the Russian Empire, not one of the major powers of England, France, and Austria had explicitly stated their support.
While it seemed they had the support of the Kingdom of Prussia, these supports all came with a price.
Prime Minister Dombrovsky was certain that if Wilhelm I could not also become the King of Poland, the Prussians would slacken in the war.
Now, the Tsarist Government was not fully prepared for war. Beating up the Kingdom of Poland would be easy, but to annihilate it, the Tsarist Government needed to seriously consider whether they had enough money in their pockets.
The Kingdom of Prussia had reasons to slack; a barely alive Kingdom of Poland would facilitate their annexation with minimal backlash.
Prime Minister Dombrovsky made a decisive decision at once: "Begin national mobilization immediately, we must be prepared for a decisive battle against the Russians."
The great powers could not be relied upon for the time being, the French had their hands full, Austria was an ally of the Russian Empire, and the British, as everyone knows, were not reliable.
Mediation is easy to speak of, but in reality, it all depended on whether the Russians were willing to play ball. More than half of the Tsarist Government’s 24-hour ultimatum had passed, and the Russian Army would likely already be on their way before the British diplomatic note even reached the Tsarist Government.
The Kingdom of Poland’s only hope lay in the Kingdom of Prussia, and Prime Minister Dombrovsky was prepared for temporary concessions. In the face of survival, many things could be compromised.
Regardless, the Kingdom of Poland was large enough that, even with their hearty appetite, the Prussians couldn’t swallow it in one go.
Before that, they had to withstand the first wave of Russian assaults. If they were defeated before help from Prussia arrived, it would be disastrous.
They could hardly expect Prussia to help reclaim lost territories and drive the Russians back home, could they?
Despite their victory in the last war, Prussia still did not match Russia in national strength. Without the support of a wealthy benefactor, Prussia was no match for the Russian Empire.
The Tsarist Government was strapped for cash, and the Berlin Government was not much better off. Should anyone hear one day that the Berlin Government was bankrupt, they should not be surprised, for they had always been teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.
It was not so much the Kingdom of Prussia that had defeated the Russians, but rather the wealthy backers who had pummeled the Tsarist Government with their money.
The European countries had all chipped in, with England and France generously opening their wallets. Such good fortune doesn’t come every day. And the borrowed money had to be repaid; for years now, both Prussia and Poland had been struggling to pay off their debts.
After slimming down, the Russian Empire no longer inspired fear in Europe, and naturally, the subsidies had ceased.
Under these circumstances, Prime Minister Dombrovsky didn’t believe Prussia had the strength to thoroughly defeat the Russians. If they had had such strength, the Berlin Government would have already annexed Poland without waiting until now.
The Polish Government had never neglected preparations for war, but according to initial estimates, the war would occur more than a decade later, so their preparations were not sufficient.
The Russia-Poland conflict came too suddenly. The Polish Government had just received the news when the Tsarist Government’s ultimatum arrived, leaving no time for preparation.
Completing war preparations within 24 hours was sheer fantasy. Unless you were a tiny nation like Monaco that could accomplish national mobilization in a few hours.
While Poland began mobilization, the Russians were not idle. The well-prepared Tsarist Government had already concentrated 20 infantry divisions and 5 cavalry divisions on the Russia-Poland border, and another 20 infantry divisions on the Prusso-Russian border.
Clearly, the Tsarist Government did not trust the Prussians, hence the heavy military presence on the border.
Times had changed, and the Tsarist Government had stockpiled a quantity of grain, resolving the feeding issue for Russian soldiers. The logistical pressure on the Russians had been greatly reduced.
20 infantry divisions might not threaten the Kingdom of Prussia, but they were more than sufficient for border defense. Even if the Berlin Government was contemplating trickery, they would first have to consider their own capabilities.
There was no denying it: a large army affords one the luxury of caprice. With little effort, the Tsarist Government had mobilized over half a million troops, exceeding the combined standing armies of Prussia and Poland.
Tragically, the Polish Government had failed to notice this in advance, and even now, Prime Minister Dombrovsky had no idea of how many enemies they were facing.
From this perspective, the Polish Government truly fell short. They epitomized the phrase, "high aspirations but low abilities," disregarding the importance of intelligence work.
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